CCEDC 16th Annual Economic Outlook Wrap Up
The Chester County Economic Development Council held its 16th annual Economic Outlook on Friday, January 10. More than 145 people attended our yearly forecast on the economy from the local and national perspectives.
We are happy to share the presentations from our two speakers – please click on the links below to download. We are also happy to share press coverage from the Daily Local News.
James Glassman – Managing Director and Head Economist for Commercial Banking at Chase –Jim Glassman Presentation 2020
Patti Brennan, CFP®, CFS, President and CEO at Key Financial, Inc. – Patti Brennan Presentation 2020
Area organizations share annual economic outlook
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Meanwhile, Patti Brennan, president and CEO, Key Financial Inc. teamed with James Glassman, managing director and head economist for commercial banking at Chase joined forces to share their perspectives on the local, regional, national and global economies with about 150 at the Chester County Economic Development Council breakfast meeting held at the organization’s West Whiteland office.
At both events, the presenters spoke about market history, risks, the ongoing economic recovery and the potential for a recession.
The key message coming out of both programs was for investors to stay the course, stay invested and filter out some of what the speakers called “noise” about the economy and the stock market.
That noise specifically refers to talk about the length of the ongoing economic recovery, when it will end, inflation and whether the country will slip into another recession.
“I prefer talking about the outlook when there is a lot of anxiety in the air, like the Iran situation, because most of what you hear is noise, Glassman said. “Think about what we were talking about last year — tariffs, trade tensions, Brexit, and there was talk about a recession early last year because the yield curve was inverting.”
The yield curve plots the interest rates of bonds that have equal credit quality but different maturity dates. The slope of the yield curve gives an idea of future interest rate changes and economic activity. An inverted yield curve is when the curve slopes downward.
“The inverted yield curve is when the shorter-term rates are higher than the long term rates and it creates competition for banks and the government,” Margolius said, adding it has been a predictor of recessions.
“In the old days, if you saw the yield curve invert, it was a good signal of what was coming, and the reason is because it told you a lot. But the things we used to rely on aren’t the same animal,” Glassman added.
Glassman brought up a report from the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia recently that indicated Pennsylvania’s economy may be in decline.
The report, he said is based on jobless claims, the yield curve and housing, and is “obsolete in my mind,” he said.
Brennan added that overall household health is a positive economic indicator.